Your theory is likely correct. When I realized he was gone, I asked one of the Watchers what had happened. They could tell you were still alive, but not where you were. Had they known, they would have told me. I'm sure of it.

[She listens to the rundown with her hand still in Taf's plumage, frowning slightly as he explains.] But why would you trail a pack of children during a storm? [It's almost a trick question; of course they would have. It's Alphinaud, after all.]

Did you actually see the beast that attacked the city? Alphinaud told me that the ship sank and the city fell, but the way he told it... [A pause.] Normally he's quite scrupulous with his facts. That his story was so fragmented was not like him at all.